Here’s a stark reality check: American consumers are getting priced out of their own energy market, and it’s all thanks to the booming LNG export industry. But here’s where it gets controversial—while this surge in exports is a win for the U.S. as a global energy powerhouse, it’s leaving everyday Americans footing the bill with higher natural gas prices. This week, U.S. natural gas prices dipped to a two-week low of $3.03 per mmBtu due to forecasts of milder weather, but that’s still a far cry from the lower prices seen in October 2024. The culprit? Skyrocketing LNG exports, which are setting record after record. In September alone, the U.S. exported a staggering 9.4 million tons of LNG, up from 9.3 million tons in August. And with Europe scrambling to stockpile gas ahead of winter, another record is almost guaranteed this month. And this is the part most people miss—this export boom is creating a tricky dilemma for policymakers, particularly those who promised both cheap energy and global energy dominance.
When President Trump took office, he vowed to make energy affordable for Americans while simultaneously turning the U.S. into a global energy leader. Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: these two goals are mutually exclusive, especially when it comes to natural gas. On one hand, surging exports are a testament to the U.S.’s growing clout in the global energy market. On the other, they’re driving up prices at home, leaving consumers feeling the pinch. It’s a classic case of ‘you can’t have your cake and eat it too.’
Natural gas producers, much like their counterparts in the oil industry, are highly sensitive to price fluctuations. When prices drop, they cut production. But with prices up by about $1 per mmBtu over the past year and a bullish demand outlook—driven by data centers, new power plants, and Europe’s insatiable appetite for U.S. energy—there’s little incentive to slow down. This is a win for Trump’s energy dominance agenda but a loss for his promise of cheap energy at home. Here’s the controversial question: Is it fair to prioritize global exports over domestic affordability? Or should the U.S. focus on keeping energy costs low for its own citizens?
The shale gas revolution turned the U.S. into a gas superpower, but as the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, shale basins are maturing. Extracting more gas is becoming costlier, which means higher prices for both domestic consumers and overseas buyers. Eugene Kim, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, summed it up bluntly: ‘If you want to export all this LNG and meet growing power demands, you’re going to need higher prices.’ That directly contradicts Trump’s goal of lower energy costs. Norway faced a similar dilemma a few years ago when its push to export gas and electricity to Europe led to higher prices at home, prompting the government to curb exports to protect domestic affordability. Could the U.S. face a similar backlash?
The long-term outlook for LNG demand is undeniably bullish. Shell predicts a 60% surge in demand by 2040, and U.S. LNG exports are already hitting record highs, with July exports reaching 14 billion cubic feet—a figure analysts say could double to 27 billion cubic feet. For producers, this is a dream scenario. For consumers, it’s a nightmare. As the main shale gas basins deplete their ‘sweet spots’—the most cost-effective, high-yield areas—production costs are set to rise, pushing end prices even higher. Industry executives say gas drillers need prices of $5 per mmBtu to justify drilling in less lucrative areas, which would double the price increase seen over the past year. But here’s the catch: if prices don’t rise, supply could tighten due to reduced drilling, which would also drive prices up. It’s a lose-lose situation for consumers.
‘We want stable, long-term prices,’ said the CEO of Aeton Energy Management. ‘What we don’t want is demand destruction due to price volatility.’ But stability in energy prices is a rare commodity, and with both oil and gas demand being relatively inelastic, higher prices seem inevitable. So, what’s the solution? Should the U.S. prioritize domestic affordability over global exports, or is this the price Americans must pay for energy dominance? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments—do you think the U.S. can strike a balance, or is this a zero-sum game?
