Will Vietnam Consolidate Its Top Two Leadership Positions? | FULCRUM
The Power of Tradition and Structure
Vietnam's political landscape is set to remain largely unchanged, despite the looming 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV). The focus is on the two key leadership positions: the CPV general secretary and the state president.
The question on everyone's mind is whether these roles will be consolidated under one person. This decision will significantly impact Vietnam's power dynamics and the outcomes of the Congress. Since taking power in August 2024, General Secretary To Lam has been consolidating authority across domestic and foreign policy, swiftly implementing reforms and strategically positioning loyal allies in key posts.
The Rise of To Lam's Influence
Domestically, To Lam has enacted sweeping political and administrative reforms with minimal pushback. He has appointed loyal allies to crucial positions, such as Tran Luu Quang as Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee and Nguyen Duy Ngoc as Secretary of the Hanoi Party Committee. This move underscores his growing dominance and may encourage further power consolidation.
In foreign affairs, To Lam has been a driving force behind Vietnam's international engagements. His high-profile visits blend international representation, economic diplomacy, and strategic guidance, positioning him as Vietnam's global face. During these trips, he has pushed for head-of-state protocol, reflecting his dual role aspirations, but partners have often demurred.
The Unlikely Consolidation
Given these circumstances, the question arises: Will To Lam seek to hold both the CPV general secretary and state president positions at the Congress? Recent political signals suggest this consolidation is highly improbable.
The Structure of Power
The CPV Politburo issued updated regulations regarding leadership positions, elevating the standing member of the Secretariat to the key leadership group. This change suggests the current structure will be maintained, making consolidation less likely. Additionally, the presidency is currently held by General Luong Cuong, a senior military figure, reflecting a delicate power-sharing pact between the public security and military factions.
Any attempt by To Lam to claim the presidency would disrupt this balance and provoke military pushback. Consolidating roles would also alienate civilian politicians and diminish their promotion prospects. Functionally, combining the positions would overburden a single leader, undermining party governance and state management.
The Enduring Structure
Despite To Lam's ambitions, Vietnam's top-tier power structure is likely to endure. Past precedent shows that dual roles held by late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and To Lam were temporary, due to specific circumstances. Vietnam's 'five pillars' will continue to be held by distinct leaders, maintaining a balance of power and avoiding political instability.
This structure differs from other Communist countries like China, North Korea, and Laos, where the general secretary also serves as president. While it may reduce the effectiveness of the political system and create inconsistencies in high-level diplomacy, it helps maintain a balance of power and preserves collective leadership, preventing over-concentration of power and potential policy errors.
